When Will AI Replace Real Filmmakers? Not Anytime Soon—Maybe Never.

Every time I see a new demo of generative video—whether it’s Veo from Google or Sora from OpenAI—I get hit by a whole wave of emotions. Shock and curiosity—sometimes all at once.

Now that the emotions have settled a bit, I’ve been more focused on organizing my own thoughts—and those of my fellow filmmakers—about where this technology might be taking us. And just to be clear, I’m not here to make bold predictions. What I want to do is share a snapshot of the world as it looks right now, and where, in theory, it could realistically go.

I also want to calm some fear around this tech. I get it—it's intimidating. But I’ll share my own experience and how I’m thinking about adapting to these changes without losing the passion for the craft—or the ability to make a living from it.

Will Smith realistically eating spaghetti — generated with VEO 3 

Let’s talk emotions.

First off, I’m just like you. I love this craft. I love filming, working with light, composition, the frame. And I love telling stories, building them piece by piece into films, music videos. And even more than that—I love when my skills get paid for. When my experience and craft are valued and rewarded on real projects—commercials, movies, talk shows, music videos. After 13 years in this industry, I’ve fully come into my identity as a craftsman-artist. I honestly can’t imagine being anything else.

And I’m sure for most of you, being a filmmaker isn’t just about the money, either. It’s about fulfillment. Passion. It’s a way of life. So whenever a company comes along and claims they’ve found a way to automate or monopolize the creation of video, it feels like a challenge. A challenge to all of us as creators.

Let’s not forget the recent hype around copying Miyazaki’s style. Honestly, this kind of thing—cloning a specific artist’s work—it’s not just shady, it’s borderline illegal. And deeply disrespectful. Suddenly, anyone can grab your visual voice in seconds. And you’re no longer unique! That idea still makes me angry and sad.

"Lord of the Rings" in Studio Ghibli style — AI generated.

Some companies have started quietly changing their terms of service to give themselves full access to your project materials. They don’t ask for permission directly — it’s all hidden into the agreement. The moment you upload something into their platform, they can scan it, analyze it, and even use it to train their AI models. Most people don’t even realize this is happening. It’s not about transparency — it’s about taking your work for free and calling it legal. And that raises real questions about trust and ownership in the creative world.

So, from a legal perspective, it still looks like the Wild West. The industry has no solid rules yet, and it might take decades to fully sort this out. Big brands, studios, and celebrities already have protections in place. But what about the rest of us? Maybe someday we’ll be able to earn royalties when our work is used to train generative models. 

But let’s leave the negativity there for now and try to look at things more objectively. I don’t want to sound like a technophobe—because honestly, there’s a lot about this tech that’s actually exciting. And maybe, just possibly, some surrounding fear is a bit overhyped.

First big fear: AI is going to replace all of us (artists).

It’s not. At least not our generation—not those of us who are between 25 and 50.

For the past couple of years, I’ve been using AI voice cloning to narrate my educational content. I’m not a native English speaker, and trust me, I sound way worse in real life than what you hear in my videos. That voice – it’s a "clone of me". I trained it by recording my natural voice.

Did it make my life easier? Did I want to stick with it for good? Hell no. It’s a total pain in the ass XD. I can spend an entire day just trying to get a clean 10-minute voiceover. Every sentence comes out with a different intonation. I end up doing 10 regenerations just to make one line sound consistent with the last. And that’s not even touching rhythm, tone, mood, or volume.

Yes, the newer version of the service (elevenlabs) I use includes voice tags for pace, mood, even accent—but it’s still a headache. I’d sell my soul to speak like a native, and I’m still actively practicing, hoping that in a couple of years I’ll get to a decent level.

And I can feel how AI often averages out things — pulling from thousands or even millions of variations that only actually work when played out in real life. But what if I want to say something with a smile at just the right moment? Or hit a word with a sharp, angry tone? Sure, technically I could tag phrase/word and maybe get the result I want… on the tenth try. But man, it takes so much time. And it’s the same story with video.

So when people say, “AI is just a tool,” I agree—but it’s literally that: a tool. One that can waste your time if you let it. Now you just have more ways to trade your limited hours—either spend them on real shoots, or spend them tweaking prompts and regenerations.

Now let’s look at photographers. Remember that moment when Midjourney suddenly got really good at photorealism? Did photographers vanish? No. Sure, a big chunk of commercial photography probably got eaten up, but the medium itself didn’t die. If anything, TikTok and Reels have done more damage to traditional photography than AI ever did.

Same with music. ChatGPT can write a killer set of lyrics, and there are tools out there that can generate full songs and tracks. But did musicians disappear? Nope. Music licensing platforms are still making money and still promoting talented creators.

All those amazing AI-generated videos you see online? Somebody spent days—sometimes weeks—making them happen.

AI won’t magically do the work for you. That’s the point. Just understanding that can help get rid of the silly idea that machines are going to replace you. 

For one of my projects, I used AI tools to push the look of static shots — bringing in more depth and style to elevate the overall frame. It's "real" shot. 

That’s me — speaking at a public talk organized by Hollyland for Brand Day 2024.

“AI is the future, it’s the only way forward, we all need to get on board now. Traditional filmmaking is doomed.”

Not doomed. I’d say some types of video content will fade away, sure—but a lot will stay with us for a long time. What I do think is that the commercial sector is heading for serious restructuring. The whole model of shooting big, bloated, expensive ad campaigns is slowly becoming a thing of the past—or at least shrinking drastically.

I mean, why spend $70,000 to shoot a 15-second commercial with celebrities when you can just license their likeness, generate a short scene with them, throw in some well storytelling and lovely music—and do it all for five (or ten) cheaper?

I’ve been watching this shift happen since the early 2013s. Content inflation is real. There’s more content than ever, and less and less time to produce it. Social media, accessible cameras, phones, vlogging—all of it has made the fight for attention way more competitive. And in that environment, very few companies want to throw big money into polished, ultra high-end epic videos.

It’s easier to shoot 10 quick (but good and well looked) videos and hope one goes viral than to bet everything on one expensive production. High spends for only single video doesn’t guarantee results anymore.

So going back to the original point—yes, I guess that the ad and stock footage markets (the low-end, mass content stuff) are going through a transformation. But that doesn’t mean the world has no need for real, physical production anymore.

Now more than ever, it’s important to stay clear-headed and not fall for the doom-and-gloom YouTube videos with titles like “It’s Over.” Those are designed to manipulate you—to sell fear and uncertainty. Don’t let that poison your perspective. Talk to your peers. See what they’re seeing, how they’re adapting.

I reached out to a few friends—people right in the heart of the industry in Los Angeles.

Here’s what a cinematographer from Local 600 wrote back:

“Hey. I think AI is a helper, not a replacement. Just like LLMs for writers—they don’t write for them, they assist. So Veo is great for making references, for example, to help pitch an idea. Maybe it’s a competitor for content creators, but not for cinema. Plus, the unions are banning AI across the board. So big projects are definitely going to keep being shot by real people.”

And another friend who’s been working on sets in LA for years told me:

“Here in LA, ever since COVID, everyone’s been on edge. On one hand, everything feels like it’s at a low point, but on the other hand, there’s more demand for video content than ever before. AI is insanely powerful, and people here are trying to integrate it into everything possible.”

I also asked Garrett from Filmsupply—a platform that sells cinematic stock footage—how they feel about competing with hyperrealistic AI-generated video. Here's what he said:

"We've been keeping an eye on the VEO 3 rollout—it's pretty wild stuff! Honestly, who knows where this is all headed in five years, but our filmmakers and clients keep coming back because they want the real deal. We've actually started leaning into being the opposite of AI—really highlighting the craft and creativity that goes into every shot our filmmakers capture.

Sure, every time a new AI video tool drops, it gets everyone talking and wondering what's next. But at the end of the day, people still crave that human touch, that authentic storytelling you can only get from real filmmakers doing real work."

To me, these responses reflect the real mood of the industry—not panic, not hype, just a clear-eyed view of what’s happening. Some are adapting, some are cautious, but no one’s abandoning "ship".

The Inversion of Fear

Back in the 1940s, when nuclear weapons were first created, many scientists and public figures genuinely believed they had let the genie out of the bottle. Some of them carried a deep sense of guilt.

From public records: Leo Szilard, one of the initiators of the Manhattan Project, was deeply concerned. After Hiroshima, he wrote, “I was afraid that we might build the bomb too late. Now I fear we have built it too early.” There are even rumors—and a few documented cases—that some scientists, including both American, German and Soviet physicists, couldn’t live with the weight of what they had helped unleash. One of the more well-known examples is chemist David Griggs, who was found dead in 1974 under circumstances many believe were linked to his growing sense of remorse over his involvement in nuclear development.

And yet… who knows how many wars might have broken out by now if the superpowers hadn’t possessed nuclear weapons? That’s a powerful example of what I call a fear inversion—when a technological breakthrough first triggers panic, only for its long-term presence to reshape the world in a complex but often stabilizing way. 

When there’s a major technological breakthrough, the first human reaction is usually fear. Discomfort. It feels like the ground is shifting and the rules are being rewritten. That reaction is normal. Completely normal.

That’s why I can’t stand it when people mock creators by saying things like, “Oh! Now we can just remake the last season of Game of Thrones! Uahahah” Laughing wickedly, pulling a booger out of his nose and eating it.

The reality is, most breakthrough technologies go through what’s called the hype cycle. It always starts the same way: with fear and inflated expectations. That’s when all the flashy demos drop. Everyone’s sharing next-gen video examples. You see headlines like, Hollywood is dead! First AI film festivals pop up, early projects win prizes, and there’s this huge sense of disruption.

Then, reality sets in. Turns out, using these tools in practice isn’t so simple. There are limitations, unexpected obstacles. And slowly, the hype cools off. People adapt. The world adjusts. That’s why it’s crucial to analyze the market and make your long-term plans during the cool-down phase—not in the middle of the hype.

And more often than not, tools that initially seem “scary” or negative actually open up new opportunities in certain corners of the industry. I can speak for myself: 2025 has been my busiest year in production compared to both 2024 and 2023—even though, supposedly, the world can now generate video with AI.

I’m not the only one. A few friends I spoke to for this piece told me the same thing. For some of us, there’s actually more work now—not less.

How to Adapt to Change

There will always be crises in the world. There will always be breakthrough technologies and events that shake us. And all of it—sooner or later—will affect our mental health, put pressure on us, and try to knock us off balance. And of course, there will always be people ready to spread panic, convincing you that the game has changed for good.

But I truly believe that, as creative professionals, we need to stay calm and clear-headed—no matter what’s going on. Don’t make rash decisions. Don’t let fear steer the course of your life. Over time, I’ve figured out a few principles that help me process difficult moments with minimal emotional burnout.

1. Never draw conclusions about new technologies, the future, or the market while you're in an emotional state. Talk to your colleagues. Reach out to people in adjacent fields. Share what you’re going through. Don’t bottle everything up or trap yourself inside a bubble of subjective perception.

2. Don’t blindly trust media. Every outlet benefits from triggering a strong emotion in you—fear, greed, panic. These stories aren’t written by fools, and they’re rarely written with your best interests at heart. They want your attention. So when someone’s screaming “It’s over!”—don’t take the bait. All you’ll do is ruin your mood.

3. There will always be hype-chasers. Focus on what lights you up. These are the same people who bought Bitcoin in 2011, who now sell you AI courses or launch platforms on top of it. It’s a personality type—someone who’s obsessed with what’s new and allergic to what’s stable. They’ll do everything they can to sell you their worldview and tools, convincing you you’re missing out.

But are you that person? I’m not. And I’m not against technology either. I’m against theft. I’m against FOMO. I’m against being aggressively sold something that’s barely even understood yet. I’m not going to drop everything and jump headfirst into generation-based work just because “it’s the future.”

Do what excites you. Follow your curiosity. 

And on that last point—I want to go deeper. When you work with video, over time you begin to understand the nuances of composition, story structure, lighting, camera movement, exposure. Honestly, it’s like learning how to build a house—knowing every part of the structure inside and out. And if you’re doing it out of love, you’ll always find a way to monetize your skills and adapt them to new tools.

So, focus on what lights you up!  Keep developing as a specialist. Learn. Improve. If you do that, the industry—and society—will always have a place for you. That kind of person can’t be replaced by AI. You are a mix of universal knowledge, experience, and personality—and that’s priceless.

And don’t forget about human capital. Without real human connection—colleagues, friendships, a network—everything becomes harder. With AI or without it. Because most work, most new opportunities, still come from people you’ve worked with before. People who know you. Trust you. That’s your capital. Protect it. Grow it. In that kind of environment, you’re never alone. And your chances of landing great projects go way, way up.

4. Keep Learning

What was considered cutting-edge 10 years ago might look pretty average today. I’m talking about all those trendy Vimeo Staff Picks from back in the day. And that’s totally normal. Most Olympic records have been broken over the course of the past century—and that’s in the realm of physical human ability, one of the hardest areas to push forward.

In the creative world, it’s the same. We’re constantly evolving—chasing new tools, new ideas, new forms. With each passing year, the work looks better and better—especially in the low-budget segment. Just compare today’s stock footage to the awkward, clumsy clips from ten years ago. And that also includes AI-generated versions as well. The quality gap has narrowed fast.

To keep up in this race of visual forms, you need to accept one simple truth: you have to keep learning. The best investment isn’t a new camera—it’s a knowledge and practice.

People who don’t like learning get stuck in the past—with outdated techniques, stale ideas, and a distorted view of the market, the tools, and what “quality” even means anymore.

5. Be versatile in this industry.

One of the worst pieces of advice you might hear right now is: “Just focus on one thing.” And while that mindset used to resonate with me—I’ve got to say, I don’t agree anymore.

Life’s expensive, you know it. The video industry is volatile. Tech is moving fast, and jobs aren’t always consistent. To avoid stretches of downtime where you’re sitting around waiting for the next project: diversify yourself. Do it if you have the time.

Sure, this advice won’t mean much to people who are booked back-to-back as DPs or directors—and more power to them. But the reality, especially in places like LA, is that big part of the industry consists of freelancers and content creators. And it’s the same—if not tougher—around the world.

I’m grateful I learned to color grade in DaVinci Resolve. That I studied directing and made a few projects of my own. And I once had the chance to learn lighting from a seasoned gaffer.These skills gave me flexibility.

I work as a DP or director, I shoot tv shows, music videos, films, or brand collaboration content for my YouTube channel, I build educational programs and teach workshops. Sometimes I travel with friends and help out as a gaffer or camera op on talk shows—and I love it. It keeps me balanced. If a major crisis hits tomorrow, I’ve already spread my skill set across enough areas to stay working and earning. That brings me peace of mind.

And most importantly—it’s all connected. Everything I do feeds into each other. I know people who work at banks and shoot on the side. Others have jobs in IT and make time for creative film work on weekends. That’s fine too. A lot of my friends are in the same boat. One guy works on my projects as a focus puller, but only lands one or two big project as a DP a year. I know colorists who will jump in as camera ops when needed. That’s just how it is now. If you operate that way, you’re less vulnerable to sudden industry shifts. And you’re not gambling with your financial security every time the market moves.

Is AI Video generation the Future?

Let’s sum it up. I do think, yes—this is definitely the future. I’m pretty sure that for our kids, it won’t matter at all whether the content they watch was created synthetically or captured in the real world.

But for our generation—for us—it still matters. We still care about seeing real people, hearing real stories, watching something alive. Series and films will continue to be made. No doubt about it.

Yes, in the near future, we probably won’t be able to tell the difference between real footage and AI-generated content. And yes, studios will have access to tools most everyday users will never even see. But that doesn’t mean those tools will be used for everything, or by everyone.

Just look at CGI. It’s used when it makes sense—when building a real set or creating practical effects would be far more expensive or complex. It’s integrated seamlessly, accurately, and strategically. AI will likely follow the same path.

Now let’s talk about something more positive: the cost of real video production is going down. A lot of companies that manufacture lenses, for example, have stopped renewing patents on their tech. That’s why today you can get a stunning anamorphic lens for under $2,000—something that used to be an unattainable dream. Do you know how much a Hawk or Arri Master Anamorphic lens set costs? :)

Lighting: CRI and output (lux) levels have skyrocketed, easily surpassing traditional halogen and HMI standards. It's wild! And cameras? I won’t even get started. Production is becoming more accessible, and that’s a soooo good thing.

This trend actually helps balance out the rise of AI tools and their cost in time, money, and effort.

So let me end on a positive note: don’t fear change. Learn. Connect. Do what you love. And don’t fall for anyone’s emotional forecasts. Protect your mental health, your human capital, and your professional identity. Even the smartest people in the world can’t tell you what the world will look like tomorrow—let alone in five, ten, or thirty years.